Rising Verbal Conflict Between Ethiopian Government and Eritrean Government Sparks Fears of Armed Clash

Increasing concerns are present about the possibility of warfare between East African neighbours, the Ethiopian government and Eritrea, as hostile rhetoric has intensified in recent weeks.

What Has Ethiopia Said?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, demands for entry to the sea coast through Eritrean territory has sparked a heated rhetorical conflict.

Ethiopian Prime Minister initially stated publicly in 2023 that his government's sea access was an crucial concern, remarks that Eritrea rejected.

Ties between the both governments have regularly been difficult. Following a decades-long battle for independence, Eritrea, which has a long Red Sea coastline, legally broke away from Ethiopian rule in 1993, rendering it without sea access.

Subsequently, a military clash broke out in which more than 100,000 people died.

Recent Statements from Ethiopian Leadership

Prime Minister Abiy and army chief General Birhanu Jula have directly stated control of Eritrean coastal city of Assab – some 60 km from the frontier - and implied the desire to capture it through military means.

On 1 September, Abiy said Ethiopia's "blunder" of being denied passage to the Red Sea as a result of Eritrean independence would be "addressed soon".

Ethiopia's ambassador to neighboring Kenya, former General Bacha Debele, said that Assab was "Ethiopia's wealth" and would be given back "using武力".

Eritrea's Answer to the Threats

Despite continuous challenges from Ethiopian officials, Asmara's position has been limited to concise remarks on online platforms from Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel.

The minister has dismissed Ethiopian requests for access to the Red Sea describing it as "risky" and a "toxic agenda" of "expansionism" – a approach of retaking former lands.

The information ministry warned on 16 September that moves to legitimise "obvious provocation" would have significant repercussions for the Ethiopian government and its regional partners and is a "boundary that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Military Preparations on the Ground

So far, there are no reports of major military movements in the boundary zones between the two countries.

However, in Ethiopia, government media has broadcast graduation ceremonies of numerous trainees at various military training camps.

The leader of human resources department of the military, the officer, commented lately in an conversation that the army was in a "reliable position" as "tens of thousands of recruits" were joining it, which he said was "a message to our enemies".

Past Origins of the Dispute

For over fifty years from 1890, Eritrea was ruled by Italian rulers.

After Italy's defeat, it was then administered by the British military before turning into a integrated region of the Ethiopian empire.

Yet in the early 1960s the Ethiopian emperor ended this system and the region became totally absorbed into the Ethiopian state.

A three-decade long internal conflict followed, ending with Ethiopia's defeat in the early 1990s. Independence was then confirmed by voters in a vote in 1993.

Temporarily in the 1990s, there were positive ties between the governments in Ethiopia's capital and Eritrea's capital, but they fell out over the precise positioning of their mutual frontier, leading to war in 1998.

Even though this finished in a ceasefire agreement in 2000, it was never fully implemented, and the two nations continued at odds.

This changed in 2018, when Abiy made gestures to Eritrea's leader President Isaias. The both leaders agreed to a announcement that the war was concluded – a move that gained the Prime Minister the international recognition.

The two governments were then cooperators in Ethiopia's recent internal conflict in Tigray.

Yet relations have since broken down again.