A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Each authors two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
